ArticleNature communications2021
Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.
- The neglected model validation of antimicrobial resistance transmission models - a systematic review.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2025Pooled it
- Immunotherapeutic modalities for combating multidrug-resistant bacteria: therapeutic promises of antibodies and next-generation vaccines.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Review
- Measuring vaccine effects on antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance in low and middle-income countries: A scoping review of methodological approaches, data sources, metrics, and limitations.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Dynamical model and geometric insights in the discontinuity theory of immunity.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Global trends in antibiotic consumption during 2016-2023 and future projections through 2030.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Routine immunization againstThe Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- Adult vaccination in India: A rapid review of current status & implementation challenges.The Indian journal of medical research · 2024Review
- Permissive lung neutrophils facilitate tuberculosis immunopathogenesis in male phagocyte NADPH oxidase-deficient mice.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- Bayesian Calibration to Address the Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: A Review.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2024Article
- Mapping the existing body of knowledge on new and repurposed TB vaccine implementation: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Vaccination to Reduce Antimicrobial Resistance Burden-Data Gaps and Future Research.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries.Communications medicine · 2023Article
- Global and regional burden of attributable and associated bacterial antimicrobial resistance avertable by vaccination: modelling study.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Global, regional, and national estimates of the impact of a maternal Klebsiella pneumoniae vaccine: A Bayesian modeling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- The role of bacterial vaccines in the fight against antimicrobial resistance: an analysis of the preclinical and clinical development pipeline.The Lancet. Microbe · 2023Review
- The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Preventive Therapy for Contacts of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- BCGΔBCG1419c increased memory CD8Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Novel Antibacterial Activity of Febuxostat, an FDA-Approved Antigout Drug against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7-11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6-8.1%) of deaths over 2020-2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12-16%) and 31% (29-33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.