ArticleOpen heart2021
CHARGE-AF in a national routine primary care electronic health records database in the Netherlands: validation for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation and implications for patient selection in atrial fibrillation screening.
Article in Open heart, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 32 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in community-based electronic health records: a systematic review with meta-analysis.Heart (British Cardiac Society) · 2022Pooled it
- Identifying a Heterogeneous Effect of Atrial Fibrillation Screening in Older Adults: A Secondary Analysis of the VITAL-AF Trial.Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes · 2025Trial
- Trial
- Article
- Repeated CHARGE-AF Score Assessments for Predicting Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Longitudinal Analysis from the ARIC Cohort.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Development and Validation of a Neural Network Model for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Detecting Silent Arrhythmias in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Based on Echocardiography Data.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Foundation models for electrocardiogram interpretation: clinical implications.European heart journal · 2026Article
- Machine Learning and Arrhythmia: Advances in Atrial Fibrillation Detection and Management.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025Review
- Machine learning for sudden cardiac death prediction among older adults using community-based electronic health records.BMC public health · 2025Article
- New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Pacemakers and the Implications of Hepatic Impairment.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- 2025 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2025Review
- Article
- AI-Enabled CT Cardiac Chamber Volumetry Predicts Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke Comparable to MRI.JACC. Advances · 2024Article
- The Risk of Atrial Fibrillation and Previous Ischemic Stroke in Cognitive Decline.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- 2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.Circulation · 2024Review
- Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2024Review
- Article
- Identifying Atrial Fibrillation With Sinus Rhythm Electrocardiogram in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: A Validation Study With Insertable Cardiac Monitors.Korean circulation journal · 2023Article
- Using routinely collected health record data for the earlier detection of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: FIND-HFpEF.European heart journal · 2023Article
- Initial heart rate score predicts new-onset atrial tachyarrhythmias in pacemaker patients.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issuedCorrection:2021
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsTo validate a multivariable risk prediction model (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for atrial fibrillation (CHARGE-AF)) for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in routinely collected primary care data and to assess CHARGE-AF's potential for automated, low-cost selection of patients at high risk for AF based on routine primary care data.
methodsWe included patients aged ≥40 years, free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline, 1 January 2014, in a representative, nationwide routine primary care database in the Netherlands (Nivel-PCD). We validated CHARGE-AF for 5-year observed AF incidence using the C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot for calibration. We compared CHARGE-AF with other predictors and assessed implications of using different CHARGE-AF cut-offs to select high-risk patients.
resultsAmong 111 475 patients free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline (17.2% of all patients aged ≥40 years and free of AF), mean age was 65.5 years, and 53% were female. Complete CHARGE-AF cases were older and had higher AF incidence and cardiovascular comorbidity rate than incomplete cases. There were 5264 (4.7%) new AF cases during 5-year follow-up among complete cases. CHARGE-AF's C-statistic for new AF was 0.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.74). The calibration plot showed slight risk underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation of absolute AF risk in those with highest predicted risk. The Kaplan-Meier plot with categories <2.5%, 2.5%-5% and >5% predicted 5-year risk was highly accurate. CHARGE-AF outperformed CHA
conclusionIn patients with complete baseline CHARGE-AF data through routine Dutch primary care, CHARGE-AF accurately assessed AF risk among older primary care patients, outperformed both CHA
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