ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
51 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 106 citations in OpenAlex.
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Optimal strategies for fair vaccine allocation: integrating non-pharmaceutical interventions, regional quarantine, and social challenges in epidemic control.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2026Article
- Time-Series Analysis and Age-Stratified Forecasting of Diarrheal Disease in Rwanda Using SARIMA Models.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Dynamic demand forecasting and capacity assessment for emergency care system: a hybrid time series and machine learning approach with evidence from Beijing.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- How Will AI Shape the Future of Pandemic Response? Early Clues From Data Analytics.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Review
- Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Review
- Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- An effective drift-diffusion model for pandemic propagation and uncertainty prediction.Biophysical reports · 2024Article
- Enhancing COVID-19 forecasting precision through the integration of compartmental models, machine learning and variants.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Parameter estimation in behavioral epidemic models with endogenous societal risk-response.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Social and Ethical Implications of Digital Crisis Technologies: Case Study of Pandemic Simulation Models During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Review
- Identifying waves of COVID-19 mortality using skew normal curves.Journal of applied statistics · 2024Article
- The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Agent-Based Modeling.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Fair-split distribution of multi-dose vaccines with prioritized age groups and dynamic demand: The case study of COVID-19.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Article
- Differences in COVID-19 cyclicity and predictability among U.S. counties and states reflect the effectiveness of protective measures.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Assessing individual risk and the latent transmission of COVID-19 in a population with an interaction-driven temporal model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict its future course and determine the impact of different control measures. In this study, we conducted a global systematic literature review to summarize trends in the modelling techniques used for Covid-19 from January 1st
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.