ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2021
Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040.
Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prospects of Food Taxes for Planetary Health: A Systematic Review of Modeling Studies.Nutrition reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Health taxation and need to pay health related taxes in Iran: A scoping review.Health promotion perspectives · 2025Review
- Trends in prevalence and number of cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Germany: Projections until 2050.Journal of health monitoring · 2025Article
- Article
- The implications of policy modeling assumptions for the projected impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on body weight and type 2 diabetes in Germany.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.BMC public health · 2024Review
- Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2023Article
- Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.Diabetes care · 2023Article
- Explaining specific taxes management and use in the health sector: a qualitative study.BMC health services research · 2022Article
- Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040.Population health metrics · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionAs a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsWe applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.
resultsCompared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.
conclusionsTaxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.
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