Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33451092›Full record

ArticleSensors (Basel, Switzerland)2021

Towards Providing Effective Data-Driven Responses to Predict the Covid-19 in São Paulo and Brazil.

Fabio Amaral, Wallace Casaca, Cassio M Oishi, José A Cuminato

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Sensors (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. Modeling Provincial Covid-19 Epidemic Data Using an Adjusted Time-Dependent SIRD Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Fabio AmaralFaculty of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Presidente Prudente 19060-900, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-6945-8376
Wallace CasacaDepartment of Energy Engineering, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Rosana 19273-000, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-1073-9939
Cassio M OishiFaculty of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Presidente Prudente 19060-900, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0904-6561
José A CuminatoInstitute of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, University of São Paulo (USP), São Carlos 13566-590, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5461-6463
Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) · BRUniversidade de São Paulo · BR

Funding

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 305383/2019-1Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior 88882.441642/2019-01Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo 2013/07375-0Universidade Estadual Paulista Edital-PROPG 07/2020
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

São Paulo is the most populous state in Brazil, home to around 22% of the country's population. The total number of Covid-19-infected people in São Paulo has reached more than 1 million, while its total death toll stands at 25% of all the country's fatalities. Joining the Brazilian academia efforts in the fight against Covid-19, in this paper we describe a unified framework for monitoring and forecasting the Covid-19 progress in the state of São Paulo. More specifically, a freely available, online platform to collect and exploit Covid-19 time-series data is presented, supporting decision-makers while still allowing the general public to interact with data from different regions of the state. Moreover, a novel forecasting data-driven method has also been proposed, by combining the so-called Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with machine learning strategies to better fit the mathematical model's coefficients for predicting Infections, Recoveries, Deaths, and Viral Reproduction Numbers. We show that the obtained predictor is capable of dealing with badly conditioned data samples while still delivering accurate 10-day predictions. Our integrated computational system can be used for guiding government actions mainly in two basic aspects: real-time data assessment and dynamic predictions of Covid-19 curves for different regions of the state. We extend our analysis and investigation to inspect the virus spreading in Brazil in its regions. Finally, experiments involving the Covid-19 advance in other countries are also given.

Indexed as

BrazilCOVID-19Data Interpretation, StatisticalForecastingHumansMachine LearningSARS-CoV-2Covid-19data-driven modelsinteractive platformmachine learningSIRD

Identifiers

PMID33451092
PMCPMC7828507
OpenAlexW3118875258

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.