ArticleScientific reports2021
Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modeling the seasonal epidemic of human brucellosis in China: A comparative time series analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- A bimodal longitudinal investigation on changes in sentiments over social media interactions owing to COVID-19 pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Characteristics and economic burden of hospitalized tuberculosis patients in Guangdong Province, China, from 2017 to 2023: a population-based study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Epidemiological insights into canine rabies in Chennai: Trends, forecasting and One Health implications.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Global burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 1990 to 2021 and the prediction for the next 10 years.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Risk Prediction in Southern China: Time Series Study Integrating Web-Based Search and Epidemiological Surveillance Data.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Probabilistic forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease in Mainland China using Bayesian additive regression tree model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Comparison of ARIMA and FB-Prophet time series models for the prediction of national and regional malaria incidence in Uganda.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- StatModPredict: A user-friendly R-Shiny interface for fitting and forecasting with statistical models.PloS one · 2025Article
- Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Development and Comparison of Time Series Models in Predicting Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Cases - Hubei Province, China, 2013-2020.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Prediction of influenza outbreaks in Fuzhou, China: comparative analysis of forecasting models.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Time series models in prediction of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome cases in Shandong province, China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China.PeerJ · 2024Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou City, China, 2005-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Forecasting influenza hospital admissions within English sub-regions using hierarchical generalised additive models.Communications medicine · 2023Article
- Trend of the Tuberculous Pleurisy Notification Rate in Eastern China During 2017-2021: Spatiotemporal Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Suicidality and mood: the impact of trends, seasons, day of the week, and time of day on explicit and implicit cognitions among an online community sample.Translational psychiatry · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.
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