Assessing the impact of smoking on the health and productivity of the working-age Indonesian population using modelling.

objectivesTo estimate the impact of smoking in the working-age Indonesian population in terms of costs, years of life, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost.

methodsLife table modelling of Indonesian smokers aged 15-54 years, followed up until 55 years (retirement age). Contemporary data on demographics, all-cause mortality, population attributable fractions and prevalence of smoking were derived from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The quality of life and reduction in productivity due to smoking were derived from published sources. The analysis was repeated but with the assumption that the cohorts were non-smokers. The differences in results represented the losses incurred due to smoking. Gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker (US$11 765) was used for estimation of the cost of each PALY, and an annual discount rate of 3.0% was applied to all costs and outcomes.

resultsThe prevalences of smoking among Indonesian working-age men and women were 67.2% and 2.16%, respectively. This study estimated that smoking caused 846 123 excess deaths, 2.9 million years of life lost (0.40%), 41.6 million QALYs lost (5.9%) and 15.6 million PALYs lost (2.3%). The total cost of productivity loss due to smoking amounted to US$183.7 billion among the working-age population followed up until retirement. Healthcare cost was predicted to be US$1.8 trillion. Over a 1-year time horizon, US$10.2 billion was lost in GDP and 117 billion was lost in healthcare costs.

conclusionSmoking imposes significant health and economic burden in Indonesia. The findings stress the importance of developing effective tobacco control strategies at the macro and micro levels, which would benefit the country both in terms of health and wealth.