ArticleScientific reports2021
Shape and rate of movement of the invasion front of Xylella fastidiosa spp. pauca in Puglia.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- The susceptibility of olive cultivars to Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca ST53 affects transmission efficiency of the insect vector Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae).Pest management science · 2026Article
- Identification and characterization of Phi1 and Phi3 bacteriophages targeting Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca, the causal agent of olive quick decline in Italy.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Ants' semiochemicals deters Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae) activity on olive trees.Journal of economic entomology · 2025Article
- Modelling plant disease spread and containment: Simulation and approximate Bayesian Computation for Xylella fastidiosa in Puglia, Italy.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Comparing the effectiveness of ring and block-vaccination strategies on networks.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Diffusible Signal Factors andBiology · 2025Review
- Assessment of Fatty Acid and Oxylipin Profile of Resprouting Olive Trees Positive toPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- A Decade after the Outbreak ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Satellite monitoring of bio-fertilizer restoration in olive groves affected by Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Epidemiologically-based strategies for the detection of emerging plant pathogens.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Csp1, a Cold Shock Protein Homolog in Xylella fastidiosa Influences Cell Attachment, Pili Formation, and Gene Expression.Microbiology spectrum · 2021Article
- Estimating the movements of terrestrial animal populations using broad-scale occurrence data.Movement ecology · 2021Review
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In 2013, Xylella fastidiosa spp. pauca was first reported in Puglia, Italy, causing the olive quick decline syndrome (OQDS). Since then the disease has spread, prompting the initiation of management measures to contain the outbreak. Estimates of the shape of the disease front and the rate of area expansion are needed to inform management, e.g. the delineation of buffer zones. However, empirical estimates of the invasion front and the rate of spread of OQDS are not available. Here, we analysed the hundreds of thousands of records of monitoring data on disease occurrence in Puglia to estimate the shape of the invasion front and the rate of movement of the front. The robustness of estimation was checked using simulation. The shape of the front was best fitted by a logistic function while using a beta-binomial error distribution to model variability around the expected proportion of infected trees. The estimated rate of movement of the front was 10.0 km per year (95% confidence interval: 7.5-12.5 km per year). This rate of movement is at the upper limit of previous expert judgements. The shape of the front was flatter than expected. The fitted model indicates that the disease spread started approximately in 2008. This analysis underpins projections of further disease spread and the need for preparedness in areas that are still disease free.
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