Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33441678›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Prediction of dengue outbreak in Selangor Malaysia using machine learning techniques.

Nurul Azam Mohd Salim, Yap Bee Wah, Caitlynn Reeves, Madison Smith, Wan Fairos Wan Yaacob, Rose Nani Mudin, Rahmat Dapari, Nik Nur Fatin Fatihah Sapri, Ubydul Haque

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
21.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 138 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Forecasting and Early Warning Systems for Dengue Outbreaks: Updated Narrative Review.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Nurul Azam Mohd SalimAdvanced Analytics Engineering Centre, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia.
Yap Bee WahFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan, Kampus Kota Bharu, Lembah Sirrh, 15050, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia.
Caitlynn ReevesDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, 76107, USA.
Madison SmithDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, 76107, USA.
Wan Fairos Wan YaacobFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan, Kampus Kota Bharu, Lembah Sirrh, 15050, Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia.
Rose Nani MudinVector Borne Disease Sector, Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Level 4, Block E10, Complex E, Federal Government Administration Complex, 62590, Putrajaya, Malaysia.
Rahmat DapariVector Borne Disease Sector, Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Level 4, Block E10, Complex E, Federal Government Administration Complex, 62590, Putrajaya, Malaysia.
Nik Nur Fatin Fatihah SapriAdvanced Analytics Engineering Centre, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia.
Ubydul HaqueDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, 76107, USA. mdubydul.haque@unthsc.edu.
Universiti Teknologi MARA · MYGovernment of Malaysia · MYUniversity of North Texas Health Science Center · USUniversity of North Texas · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects nearly 3.9 billion people globally. Dengue remains endemic in Malaysia since its outbreak in the 1980's, with its highest concentration of cases in the state of Selangor. Predictors of dengue fever outbreaks could provide timely information for health officials to implement preventative actions. In this study, five districts in Selangor, Malaysia, that demonstrated the highest incidence of dengue fever from 2013 to 2017 were evaluated for the best machine learning model to predict Dengue outbreaks. Climate variables such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and rainfall were used in each model. Based on results, the SVM (linear kernel) exhibited the best prediction performance (Accuracy = 70%, Sensitivity = 14%, Specificity = 95%, Precision = 56%). However, the sensitivity for SVM (linear) for the testing sample increased up to 63.54% compared to 14.4% for imbalanced data (original data). The week-of-the-year was the most important predictor in the SVM model. This study exemplifies that machine learning has respectable potential for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. Future research should consider boosting, or using, nature inspired algorithms to develop a dengue prediction model.

Indexed as

AedesAlgorithmsAnimalsClimateDengueDisease OutbreaksForecastingHumansIncidenceMachine LearningMalaysiaMosquito VectorsSeasonsTemperatureVector Borne Diseases

Identifiers

PMID33441678
PMCPMC7806812
OpenAlexW3120244587

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.