ArticlePloS one2021
COVID-19: Short-term forecast of ICU beds in times of crisis.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- CoViNAR: a context-aware social media dataset for pandemic severity level prediction and analysis.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2025Article
- Reducing wait times and avoiding unnecessary use of high-cost mental health services through a Rapid Access and Stabilization Program: protocol for a program evaluation study.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Adjustments in purchasing arrangements to support the COVID-19 health sector response: evidence from eight middle-income countries.Health policy and planning · 2024Article
- A Novel Approach for the Early Detection of Medical Resource Demand Surges During Health Care Emergencies: Infodemiology Study of Tweets.JMIR formative research · 2024Article
- Transdisciplinary research before, during and after COVID-19 vaccination in Chile: a virtuoso collaboration with future perspectives.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.Health care management science · 2023Article
- POST-OPERATIVE INTENSIVE CARE UNIT ADMISSION FOR ELECTIVE BRAIN TUMOUR SURGERIES: A NIGERIAN NEUROSURGICAL UNIT EXPERIENCE.Annals of Ibadan postgraduate medicine · 2023Article
- The Function of Bed Management in Pandemic Times-A Case Study of Reaction Time and Bed Reconversion.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Forecasting ICU Census by Combining Time Series and Survival Models.Critical care explorations · 2023Article
- Dynamic fair balancing of COVID-19 patients over hospitals based on forecasts of bed occupancy.Omega · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Patterns in Araraquara, Brazil: A Multimodal Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Policy-Relevant Indicators of Urban Emergency Medical Services COVID-19-Patient Encounters.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2023Article
- Modeling COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in the Netherlands.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Infection with SARS-CoV-2 variant Gamma (P.1) in Chile increased ICU admission risk three to five-fold.PloS one · 2023Article
- Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.PloS one · 2023Article
- Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
By early May 2020, the number of new COVID-19 infections started to increase rapidly in Chile, threatening the ability of health services to accommodate all incoming cases. Suddenly, ICU capacity planning became a first-order concern, and the health authorities were in urgent need of tools to estimate the demand for urgent care associated with the pandemic. In this article, we describe the approach we followed to provide such demand forecasts, and we show how the use of analytics can provide relevant support for decision making, even with incomplete data and without enough time to fully explore the numerical properties of all available forecasting methods. The solution combines autoregressive, machine learning and epidemiological models to provide a short-term forecast of ICU utilization at the regional level. These forecasts were made publicly available and were actively used to support capacity planning. Our predictions achieved average forecasting errors of 4% and 9% for one- and two-week horizons, respectively, outperforming several other competing forecasting models.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.