Use of occupancy modelling to identify sample sizes and waterbodies with fish exceeding mercury consumption advisory thresholds.

Identifying waterbodies where fish methylmercury concentrations are elevated is critical for development of consumption guidelines. However, mercury concentrations vary among waterbodies and fishes due to a suite of environmental conditions and detection of elevated mercury concentrations is imperfect, resulting in inaccurate consumption guidelines. Occupancy models may be a useful approach for addressing these issues but have not been used for these purposes. Our objectives were to use occupancy modeling to (1) estimate number of samples needed to detect mercury levels surpassing >0.30 mg/kg wet weight in fish at a waterbody (2) identify individual fish-level factors associated with detection probability, and (3) identify environmental-level factors linked to elevated mercury levels in fish at a waterbody. Mercury concentrations were estimated from >500 largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and walleye Sander vitreus from 30 waterbodies throughout Iowa, USA to identify individuals with concentrations > or <0.30 mg/kg. Probability of detecting mercury concentrations >0.30 mg/kg varied between species and increased with fish length; consequently, more samples were needed to detect elevated mercury concentrations in small versus large fish. The probability of a waterbody having fish with elevated mercury levels increased with the percent grassland and declined with percent agriculture in the watershed, providing prioritization metrics for mercury surveillance programs. Our results demonstrate that occupancy models can be a valuable tool for mercury surveillance due to their ability to estimate necessary sample sizes and identify fish sizes and waterbodies with elevated mercury concentrations while accounting for imperfect detection probabilities.