ArticleEClinicalMedicine2020
Development and validation of multivariable mortality risk-prediction models in older people undergoing an interRAI home-care assessment (RiskOP).
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictors of mortality shortly after entering a long-term care facility.Age and ageing · 2024Article
- Article
- Illness severity assessment of older adults in critical illness using machine learning (ELDER-ICU): an international multicentre study with subgroup bias evaluation.The Lancet. Digital health · 2023Article
- Chronic health conditions and mortality among older adults with complex care needs in Aotearoa New Zealand.BMC geriatrics · 2023Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCurrently, one-year survival of older people with complex co-morbidities is unpredictable. Identifying older adults with a reduced life expectancy will lead to more targeted care and better healthcare resource allocation.
methodsDevelopment and validation of one-year and three-month mortality risks in people aged ≥65 years who had completed an International Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (interRAI-HC) assessment between July 2012 and March 2018. Data was split into development (90%) and validation data sets (10%). A multivariable logistic regression model using data from 108 interRAI questions across multiple domains was developed and validated using discrimination metrics and calibration curves. Variables each explaining at least 1% of the model were then used to develop and validate a parsimonious model. Subgroups by sex, age, ethnicity, and comorbidities were evaluated.
findingsThere were 104,436 persons (60.2% female; mean age 82.1 years) in the study cohort of whom 20,972 (20.1%) died within one year. The full multivariable model had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.778 to 0.795 in the 5 validation datasets and was well calibrated. After variable reduction a parsimonious model consisted of 16 variables and was well calibrated and the AUC remained high: 0.773 (0.769 to 0.777). The three-month parsimonious model comprised 22 variables and was well calibrated with an AUC of 0.843 (95%CI: 0.839 to 0.848).
interpretationThese community-based risk prediction models accurately predict mortality in older people with complex co-morbidities. They may contribute to both forecasting for policy making and clinical decision making regarding an individual's needs.
fundingThe New Zealand Health Research Council.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.