ArticleScientific reports2021
Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The relationship between climate change and malaria in South-East Asia: A systematic review of the evidence.F1000Research · 2022Pooled it
- Species composition and blood feeding patterns of understudied Anopheles mosquitoes in southern Zambia, an area of low malaria transmission.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Climatic and governance determinants of malaria transmission in Rivers State, Nigeria.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of the Brazilian fire spots between 2011 and 2022.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Resurgence of Clinical Malaria in Ethiopia and Its Link toPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Phylogenomics revealed migration routes and adaptive radiation timing of Holarctic malaria mosquito species of the Maculipennis Group.BMC biology · 2023Article
- Factors influencing severity of recurrent malaria in a conflict-affected state of South Sudan: an unmatched case-control study.Conflict and health · 2022Article
- Spatio-temporal monitoring of health facility-level malaria trends in Zambia and adaptive scaling for operational intervention.Communications medicine · 2022Article
- Modelling of malaria risk, rates, and trends: A spatiotemporal approach for identifying and targeting sub-national areas of high and low burden.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.
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