ArticleNature communications2021
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Clinical Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Variants during COVID-19 Vaccination: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Viruses · 2023Pooled it
- Performance of Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Emergency System in COVID-19 Pandemic. An Extensive Narrative Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Impact of the first booster vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Chile.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Income loss and fertility intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.Revista brasileira de estudos de populacao · 2025Article
- An Integrated Framework for Infectious Disease Control Using Mathematical Modeling and Deep Learning.IEEE open journal of engineering in medicine and biology · 2025Article
- The association between perceive social support and post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms among medical staff in Hubei, China: a chain mediating effect of resilience and positive coping.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Predictive dynamical modeling and stability of the equilibria in a discrete fractional difference COVID-19 epidemic model.Results in physics · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling Evaluates How Vaccinations Affected the Course of COVID-19 Disease Progression.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Some features on methodology of dengue modelling linked to data: Comment on "Mathematical modelling for dengue fever epidemiology: a 10-year systematic review" by M. Aguiar et al.Physics of life reviews · 2023Article
- A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Profile of COVID-19 in Brazil-risk factors and socioeconomic vulnerability associated with disease outcome: retrospective analysis of population-based registers.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Identification of the effects of COVID-19 on patients with pulmonary fibrosis and lung cancer: a bioinformatics analysis and literature review.Scientific reports · 2022Review
- Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Enhancing resilience in construction against infectious diseases using stochastic multi-agent approach.Automation in construction · 2022Article
- Heterogeneous adaptive behavioral responses may increase epidemic burden.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R
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