ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 231 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
231 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Global meta-analysis of short-term associations between ambient temperature and pathogen-specific respiratory infections, 2004 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Pooled it
- Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Response in a Multi-Hazard Context: COVID-19 Pandemic as a Point of Reference.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Pooled it
- Celiac disease and COVID-19 in adults: A systematic review.PloS one · 2023Pooled it
- Impaired glucose regulation, SARS-CoV-2 infections and adverse COVID-19 outcomes.Translational research : the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Update on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence: regional and worldwide.Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Statin use and severe, critical, or fatal outcomes among individuals with coronavirus disease 2019.IJID regions · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters in Children Across Pandemic and Endemic Periods.Microorganisms · 2026Article
- Investigation of Community Behaviors, Socioeconomic Factors, and Breakthrough COVID-19 Infections Among Vaccinated Individuals: Cross-Sectional Study.Online journal of public health informatics · 2026Article
- Heterologous saRNA prime - multivalent protein boost strategy induces broad and durable immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections in adolescents and young adults: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Reinfection-Driven Accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies: A 36-Month Longitudinal Study in Austrian Blood Donors.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Precision-Engineered Dermatan Sulfate-Mimetic Glycopolymers for Multi-Targeted SARS-CoV-2 Inhibition.Marine drugs · 2025Article
- Review
- Comparing Genome Sequencing Methods to Reconstruct the Spread of Piscine Myocarditis Virus in Ireland.Journal of fish diseases · 2025Article
- Short and long term suppression of host populations by novel pathogens.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Long-term serial passaging of SARS-CoV-2 reveals signatures of convergent evolution.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Social Media and the Evolution of Vaccine Preferences During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Discrete Choice Experiment.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Role of glycosylation mutations at the N-terminal domain of SARS-CoV-2 XEC variant in immune evasion, cell-cell fusion, and spike stability.Journal of virology · 2025Article
171 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We are currently faced with the question of how the severity of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly but that disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.