Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33435892›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

A network-based model to explore the role of testing in the epidemiological control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yapeng Cui, Shunjiang Ni, Shifei Shen

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 37 citations in OpenAlex.

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  13. Human Mobility and Droplet-Transmissible Pediatric Infectious Diseases during the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
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  18. Lessons from a pandemic.PLOS global public health · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Yapeng CuiInstitute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Shunjiang NiInstitute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. sjni@tsinghua.edu.cn.
Shifei ShenInstitute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Tsinghua University · CN

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China 2018YFF0301000National Natural Science Foundation of China 71673161, 71790613
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTesting is one of the most effective means to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is an upper bound on daily testing volume because of limited healthcare staff and working hours, as well as different testing methods, such as random testing and contact-tracking testing. In this study, a network-based epidemic transmission model combined with a testing mechanism was proposed to study the role of testing in epidemic control. The aim of this study was to determine how testing affects the spread of epidemics and the daily testing volume needed to control infectious diseases.

methodsWe simulated the epidemic spread process on complex networks and introduced testing preferences to describe different testing strategies. Different networks were generated to represent social contact between individuals. An extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was adopted to simulate the spread of epidemics in these networks. The model establishes a testing preference of between 0 and 1; the larger the testing preference, the higher the testing priority for people in close contact with confirmed cases.

resultsThe numerical simulations revealed that the higher the priority for testing individuals in close contact with confirmed cases, the smaller the infection scale. In addition, the infection peak decreased with an increase in daily testing volume and increased as the testing start time was delayed. We also discovered that when testing and other measures were adopted, the daily testing volume required to keep the infection scale below 5% was reduced by more than 40% even if other measures only reduced individuals' infection probability by 10%. The proposed model was validated using COVID-19 testing data.

conclusionsAlthough testing could effectively inhibit the spread of infectious diseases and epidemics, our results indicated that it requires a huge daily testing volume. Thus, it is highly recommended that testing be adopted in combination with measures such as wearing masks and social distancing to better manage infectious diseases. Our research contributes to understanding the role of testing in epidemic control and provides useful suggestions for the government and individuals in responding to epidemics.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 TestingHumansMasksModels, StatisticalPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Complex networksCOVID-19Infectious disease controlNumerical simulationTesting

Identifiers

PMID33435892
PMCPMC7803001
OpenAlexW3119256587

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.