ArticleBMC public health2021
Healing, surviving, or dying? - projecting the German future disease burden using a Markov illness-death model.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictors of health-related quality-of-life after cardiac surgery: findings from the ANesthesiology-QUality-Registry (ANQUR) and frailty-management.BMC anesthesiology · 2026Article
- Burden and Temporal Trends of Osteoarthritis in Germany from 1990 to 2021, with Projections to 2041: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.Orthopedic research and reviews · 2026Article
- Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035.Clinical epidemiology · 2024Article
- Short of capacity? Why the government must address the capacity constraints in the English National Health Service.Health affairs scholar · 2024Article
- How to Predict Drug Expenditure: A Markov Model Approach with Risk Classes.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Article
- Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2023Article
- Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach.Clinical epidemiology · 2022Article
- Quantifying the underestimation of projected global diabetes prevalence by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn view of the upcoming demographic transition, there is still no clear evidence on how increasing life expectancy will affect future disease burden, especially regarding specific diseases. In our study, we project the future development of Germany's ten most common non-infectious diseases (arthrosis, coronary heart disease, pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, depression, diabetes, dorsal pain and heart failure) in a Markov illness-death model with recovery until 2060.
methodsThe disease-specific input data stem from a consistent data set of a major sickness fund covering about four million people, the demographic components from official population statistics. Using six different scenarios concerning an expansion and a compression of morbidity as well as increasing recovery and effective prevention, we can show the possible future range of disease burden and, by disentangling the effects, reveal the significant differences between the various diseases in interaction with the demographic components.
resultsOur results indicate that, although strongly age-related diseases like dementia or heart failure show the highest relative increase rates, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, such as dorsal pain and arthrosis, still will be responsible for the majority of the German population's future disease burden in 2060, with about 25-27 and 13-15 million patients, respectively. Most importantly, for almost all considered diseases a significant increase in burden of disease can be expected even in case of a compression of morbidity.
conclusionA massive case-load is emerging on the German health care system, which can only be alleviated by more effective prevention. Immediate action by policy makers and health care managers is needed, as otherwise the prevalence of widespread diseases will become unsustainable from a capacity point-of-view.
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