Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33430793›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

Monitoring sick leave data for early detection of influenza outbreaks.

Tom Duchemin, Jonathan Bastard, Pearl Anne Ante-Testard, Rania Assab, Oumou Salama Daouda, Audrey Duval, Jérôme-Philippe Garsi, Radowan Lounissi, Narimane Nekkab, Helene Neynaud and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Tom DucheminMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France. tom.duchemin@cnam.fr.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9131-8705
Jonathan BastardMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Pearl Anne Ante-TestardMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Rania AssabMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Oumou Salama DaoudaMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Audrey DuvalMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Jérôme-Philippe GarsiMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Radowan LounissiMalakoff Humanis, 21 Rue Laffitte, 75009, Paris, France.
Narimane NekkabMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Helene NeynaudMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
David R M SmithMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
William DabMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Kevin JeanMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Laura TemimeMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.
Mounia N HocineMESuRS laboratory, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, 292 Rue Saint-Martin, 75003, Paris, France.

Funding

Agence Nationale de la Recherche ANRS-12377 B104Agence Nationale de la Recherche PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005Agence Nationale de la Recherche SPHINX-17-CE36-0008-01.CIHR 164263
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWorkplace absenteeism increases significantly during influenza epidemics. Sick leave records may facilitate more timely detection of influenza outbreaks, as trends in increased sick leave may precede alerts issued by sentinel surveillance systems by days or weeks. Sick leave data have not been comprehensively evaluated in comparison to traditional surveillance methods. The aim of this paper is to study the performance and the feasibility of using a detection system based on sick leave data to detect influenza outbreaks.

methodsSick leave records were extracted from private French health insurance data, covering on average 209,932 companies per year across a wide range of sizes and sectors. We used linear regression to estimate the weekly number of new sick leave spells between 2016 and 2017 in 12 French regions, adjusting for trend, seasonality and worker leaves on historical data from 2010 to 2015. Outbreaks were detected using a 95%-prediction interval. This method was compared to results from the French Sentinelles network, a gold-standard primary care surveillance system currently in place.

resultsUsing sick leave data, we detected 92% of reported influenza outbreaks between 2016 and 2017, on average 5.88 weeks prior to outbreak peaks. Compared to the existing Sentinelles model, our method had high sensitivity (89%) and positive predictive value (86%), and detected outbreaks on average 2.5 weeks earlier.

conclusionSick leave surveillance could be a sensitive, specific and timely tool for detection of influenza outbreaks.

Indexed as

AbsenteeismEpidemicsSentinel SurveillanceSick LeaveFranceHumansIncidenceInfluenza, HumanInsurance, HealthMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalPublic Health SurveillanceRetrospective StudiesSensitivity and SpecificityWorkplaceInfluenzaOutbreak detectionSick-leaveSurveillance

Identifiers

PMID33430793
PMCPMC7799403

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.