Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33419936›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021

Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK.

Louis du Plessis, John T McCrone, Alexander E Zarebski, Verity Hill, Christopher Ruis, Bernardo Gutierrez, Jayna Raghwani, Jordan Ashworth, Rachel Colquhoun, Thomas R Connor and 17 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 278 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
278citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

278 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Navigating the mysterious space of evolutionary histories.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  9. Biological causes and impacts of rugged tree landscapes in phylodynamic inference.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

218 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

27 authors.

Louis du Plessis *Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0352-6289
John T McCrone *Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9846-8917
Alexander E Zarebski *Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1824-7653
Verity Hill *Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3509-8146
Christopher Ruis *Molecular Immunity Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0977-5534
Bernardo GutierrezDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9220-2739
Jayna RaghwaniDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8538-4995
Jordan AshworthInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1740-7475
Rachel ColquhounInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5577-9897
Thomas R ConnorSchool of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2394-6504
Nuno R FariaDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8839-2798
Ben JacksonInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9981-0649
Nicholas J LomanInstitute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9843-8988
Áine O'TooleInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8083-474X
Samuel M NichollsInstitute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4081-065X
Kris V ParagMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7806-3605
Emily ScherInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5401-5879
Tetyana I VasylyevaDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Erik M VolzMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6268-8937
Alexander WattsLi Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2675-3460
Isaac I BogochDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Kamran KhanLi Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-960X
COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
David M AanensenCentre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6688-0854
Moritz U G Kraemer *Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8838-7147
Andrew Rambaut *Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. a.rambaut@ed.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4337-3707
Oliver G Pybus *Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. a.rambaut@ed.ac.uk oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8797-2667

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/M010996/1Department of Health RP-PG-0514-20018Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MC_PC_19027Medical Research Council MR/J014370/1Medical Research Council MR/L015080/1Medical Research Council MR/M501621/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/S019510/1Medical Research Council MR/T030062/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The United Kingdom's COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world's largest and was unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. We determined the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country's first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantified the size, spatiotemporal origins, and persistence of genetically distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, whereas lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

Indexed as

Genome, ViralChain of InfectionCommunicable Disease ControlCommunicable Diseases, ImportedCOVID-19EpidemicsHumansPhylogenySARS-CoV-2TravelUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID33419936
PMCPMC7877493

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.