ArticleDisaster medicine and public health preparedness2022
Effect of Travel Restrictions of Wuhan City Against COVID-19: A Modified SEIR Model Analysis.
Article in Disaster medicine and public health preparedness, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- SARS-CoV-2 Cases Reported on International Arriving and Domestic Flights: United States, January 2020-December 2021.American journal of public health · 2023Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveSince December 2019, a new coronavirus viral was initially detected in Wuhan, China. Population migration increases the risk of epidemic transmission. Here, the objective of study is to estimate the output risk quantitatively and evaluate the effectiveness of travel restrictions of Wuhan city.
methodsWe proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) dynamics model to predict the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in Wuhan. And, subsequently, we estimated the export risk of COVID-19 epidemic from Wuhan to other provinces in China. Finally, we estimated the effectiveness of travel restrictions of Wuhan city quantitatively by the export risk on the assumption that the measure was postponed.
resultsThe export risks of COVID-19 varied from Wuhan to other provinces of China. The peak of export risk was January 21-23, 2020. With the travel restrictions of Wuhan delayed by 3, 5, and 7 d, the export risk indexes will increase by 38.50%, 55.89%, and 65.63%, respectively.
conclusionsThe results indicate that the travel restrictions of Wuhan reduced the export risk and delayed the overall epidemic progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. The travel restrictions of Wuhan city may provide a reference for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic all over the world.
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