ArticleEpidemiology and infection2021
An evaluation of COVID-19 transmission control in Wenzhou using a modified SEIR model.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Gauging the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modeling in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.BioMed research international · 2022Pooled it
- Evaluating the economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on shipping and port industry: A case study of the port of Shanghai.Ocean & coastal management · 2022Article
- How Seasonality and Control Measures Jointly Determine the Multistage Waves of the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Modelling Study and Implications.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Predicting COVID-19 Cases From Atmospheric Parameters Using Machine Learning Approach.GeoHealth · 2022Article
- Analysis of COVID-19 using a modified SLIR model with nonlinear incidence.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Impact of Workplace on the Risk of Severe COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control.
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