ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021
Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 60 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predicting West Nile virus circulation: a 20-year spatiotemporal study in humans and animals in Spain, 2003 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- West Nile Virus in Europe: Epidemiology, Vector Ecology, Environmental Drivers, and the Role of Equine Sentinel Surveillance in a One Health Framework.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Mapping the bird risk index for West Nile virus in Europe and its relationship with disease occurrence in humans.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- [West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease: A Retrospective Analysis of Hospitalized Cases in a Tertiary Care Center in Southern Europe].Revista de neurologia · 2025Article
- Spatial distribution of Culex mosquitoes across England and Wales, July 2023.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Prevalence of Chikungunya, Dengue, and West Nile arboviruses in Iran based on enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA): A systematic review and meta-analysis.Global epidemiology · 2025Article
- Validating a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model to Predict La Crosse Virus Human Incidence in the Appalachian Mountain Region, USA.Microorganisms · 2025Article
- Advancing West Nile virus monitoring through whole genome sequencing: Insights from a One Health genomic surveillance study in Romagna (Italy).One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2024Article
- Integrating indicator-based and event-based surveillance data for risk mapping of West Nile virus, Europe, 2006 to 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- West Nile virus in the Iberian Peninsula: using equine cases to identify high-risk areas for humans.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Comparison of West Nile Virus Disease in Humans and Horses: Exploiting Similarities for Enhancing Syndromic Surveillance.Viruses · 2023Review
- Evaluating the Sublethal Effects ofInsects · 2023Article
- Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The utility of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast neuroinvasive West Nile virus disease in the United States of America, 2022.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- West Nile Virus Infection: A Cross-Sectional Study on Italian Medical Professionals during Summer Season 2022.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Efficacy Evaluation of Oregano Essential Oil Mixed withInsects · 2022Article
- Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.
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