ArticlePloS one2021
Robust estimation of diagnostic rate and real incidence of COVID-19 for European policymakers.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- The role of vitamins D, B12, C, and K in modulating inflammation and disease management in rheumatoid arthritis: a comprehensive review.Clinical rheumatology · 2025Review
- Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate 2-week predictions of COVID-19 evolution with the Gompertz model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Status and Societal Restrictions in Controlling COVID-19 across the World.Vaccines · 2023Review
- Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.eLife · 2023Article
- Appropriateness of routine pre-endoscopic SARS-CoV-2 screening with RT-PCR in asymptomatic individuals and its impact on delayed diagnosis.Gastroenterologia y hepatologia · 2023Observational
- Simple methods for early warnings of COVID-19 surges: Lessons learned from 21 months of wastewater and clinical data collection in Detroit, Michigan, United States.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Estimation and prediction of the multiply exponentially decaying daily case fatality rate of COVID-19.The Journal of supercomputing · 2023Article
- Article
- Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias andtesting errors.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- On some fundamental challenges in monitoring epidemics.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Testing Unit Munich: Impact of Public Health and Safety Measures on Patient Characteristics and Test Results, January to September 2020.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The ethical use of high-performance computing and artificial intelligence: fighting COVID-19 at Barcelona Supercomputing Center.AI and ethics · 2022Article
- Transmissibility, hospitalization, and intensive care admissions due to omicron compared to delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 in Catalonia: A cohort study and ecological analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Mediterranean Diet a Potential Strategy against SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Narrative Review.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2021Review
- The impact of prioritisation and dosing intervals on the effects of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe: an agent-based cohort model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Socio-demographic and health factors drive the epidemic progression and should guide vaccination strategies for best COVID-19 containment.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Reconcile the debate over protective effects of BCG vaccine against COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Policymakers need clear, fast assessment of the real spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in each of their respective countries. Standard measures of the situation provided by the governments include reported positive cases and total deaths. While total deaths indicate immediately that countries like Italy and Spain had the worst situation as of mid-April, 2020, reported cases alone do not provide a complete picture of the situation. Different countries diagnose differently and present very distinctive reported case fatality ratios. Similar levels of reported incidence and mortality might hide a very different underlying pictures. Here we present a straightforward and robust estimation of the diagnostic rate in each European country. From that estimation we obtain a uniform, unbiased incidence of the epidemic. The method to obtain the diagnostic rate is transparent and empirical. The key assumption of the method is that the infection fatality ratio of COVID-19 in Europe is not strongly country-dependent. We show that this number is not expected to be biased due to demography nor to the way total deaths are reported. The estimation protocol is dynamic, and it has been yielding converging numbers for diagnostic rates in all European countries as from mid-April, 2020. Using this diagnostic rate, policy makers can obtain Effective Potential Growth updated every day, providing an unbiased assessment of the countries at greater risk of experiencing an uncontrolled situation. The method developed has been and will be used to track possible improvements in the diagnostic rate in European countries as the epidemic evolves.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.