ArticlePloS one2021
Overestimation of volatility in schizophrenia and autism? A comparative study using a probabilistic reasoning task.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Temporal stability of semantic predictions in subclinical autistic and schizotypal personality traits.Schizophrenia (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2025Article
- Understanding learning through uncertainty and bias.Communications psychology · 2025Review
- Neural correlates of uncertainty processing in psychosis spectrum disorder.Brain communications · 2025Article
- Temporal stability of Bayesian belief updating in perceptual decision-making.Behavior research methods · 2024Article
- Duration mismatch negativity under varying deviant conditions in individuals with high schizotypal traits.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2024Article
- Everything is connected: Inference and attractors in delusions.Schizophrenia research · 2022Article
- Prediction learning in adults with autism and its molecular correlates.Molecular autism · 2021Article
- Identifying Resilience Factors of Distress and Paranoia During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Five Countries.Frontiers in psychology · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
objectivesA plethora of studies has investigated and compared social cognition in autism and schizophrenia ever since both conditions were first described in conjunction more than a century ago. Recent computational theories have proposed similar mechanistic explanations for various symptoms beyond social cognition. They are grounded in the idea of a general misestimation of uncertainty but so far, almost no studies have directly compared both conditions regarding uncertainty processing. The current study aimed to do so with a particular focus on estimation of volatility, i.e. the probability for the environment to change.
methodsA probabilistic decision-making task and a visual working (meta-)memory task were administered to a sample of 86 participants (19 with a diagnosis of high-functioning autism, 21 with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, and 46 neurotypically developing individuals).
resultsWhile persons with schizophrenia showed lower visual working memory accuracy than neurotypical individuals, no significant group differences were found for metamemory or any of the probabilistic decision-making task variables. Nevertheless, exploratory analyses suggest that there may be an overestimation of volatility in subgroups of participants with autism and schizophrenia. Correlations revealed relationships between different variables reflecting (mis)estimation of uncertainty, visual working memory accuracy and metamemory. LIMITATIONS: Limitations include the comparably small sample sizes of the autism and the schizophrenia group as well as the lack of cognitive ability and clinical symptom measures.
conclusionsThe results of the current study provide partial support for the notion of a general uncertainty misestimation account of autism and schizophrenia.
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