Does hospital competition lead to medical equipment expansion? Evidence on the medical arms race.

With the implementation of a series of pro-competition policies in China, the hospital market competition has been intensified dramatically over the past decade. Based on previous literature, such competition is very much likely to bring about an upgoing trend in the promotion and expansion of medical facilities among hospitals as an essential strategy for attracting patients, which is known as Medical Arms Race (MAR). Comprehensive evaluations have been conducted by previous studies on the consequences of the MAR, which, however, merely provided inadequate empirical evidence on the relationship between hospital competition and MAR. Utilizing the variations in hospital competition across various regions and through different time periods in Sichuan Province as a prototype representative of the nationwide situation, a dynamic panel data model was established and adopted in this study for investigating whether intensified hospital competition had resulted in the expansion of medical facilities in China during the corresponding time period. The geopolitical boundaries and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) were respectively employed to define the hospital market and measure the competition degree. We found that a 10% reduction in HHI is associated with an 8.79% increase in regional total costs of advanced medical equipment per capita, suggesting that hospital competition would lead to medical equipment expansion. Our results provide novel evidence on MAR which is particularly applicable for the healthcare system in China, providing suggestions for nationwide healthcare reform in order to mitigate potential negative outcomes induced by the implementation of pro-competition policies.