Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33410296›Full record

ArticleCroatian medical journal2020

Coronavirus epidemic in Croatia: case fatality decline during summer?

Ivica Kristić, Marina Pehlić, Mirjana Pavlović, Branko Kolarić, Ivana Kolčić, Ozren Polašek

Open access · diamondAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Croatian medical journal, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
0.7field-weighted citation impact, top 27% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Ivica Kristić
Marina Pehlić
Mirjana Pavlović
Branko Kolarić
Ivana Kolčić
Ozren PolašekOzren Polašek, University of Split School of Medicine, Šoltanska 22, 21000 Split, Croatia, ozren.polasek@mefst.hr.
University of Split · HRAndrija Stampar Teaching Institute of Public Health · HR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimTo describe the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic pattern in Croatia during February-September 2020 and compare the case fatality ratio (CFR) between spring and summer.

methodsNational data were used to calculate the weekly and monthly CFRs, stratified by three age groups: 0-64, 65-79, and 80+ years. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) to offset the differences in age composition.

resultsThe epidemic consisted of the initial wave, a trough in June, and two conjoined summer waves, yielding 17206 coronavirus disease 2019 cases and 290 deaths. While the number of confirmed cases nearly quadrupled during summer, case fatality estimates decreased; CFR in spring was 4.81 (95% confidence interval 3.91-5.71), compared with 1.24 (1.06-1.42) in summer. The SMR for summer was 0.45 (0.37-0.55), suggesting that the case fatality risk halved compared with spring. Cardiovascular comorbidity was an important risk factor for case fatality (SMR 2.63 [2.20-3.13] during spring and 1.28 [1.02-1.59] during summer). The risk of death in ventilated patients remained unchanged (SMR 0.98 [0.77-1.24]).

conclusionsThe epidemic dynamics suggests summer decline in case fatality, except in ventilated patients. While the effect of comorbidity also decreased, cardiovascular comorbidity remained an important risk factor for death even during summer. A plethora of possible confounders and an ever-changing landscape of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Croatia require constant monitoring and evaluation, with an aim to prevent the uncontrolled spread of the virus and a disruption of health care functioning.

Indexed as

SeasonsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsChildChild, PreschoolComorbidityCOVID-19CroatiaEpidemicsEpidemiological MonitoringFemaleHospitalizationHumans

Identifiers

PMID33410296
PMCPMC7821368
OpenAlexW3119968505

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.