Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33404886›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical systems2021

Shedding Light on the Black Box: Explaining Deep Neural Network Prediction of Clinical Outcomes.

Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U Shah, Charlene R Weir, Bruce E Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical systems, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Yijun ShaoBiomedical Informatics Center, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA. yshao@gwu.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6419-7963
Yan ChengBiomedical Informatics Center, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.
Rashmee U ShahDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Charlene R WeirDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Bruce E BrayDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Qing Zeng-TreitlerBiomedical Informatics Center, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

Funding

Clinical and Translational Science Institute at Childrens NationalUL1TR001876 · NCATS · CHILDREN'S RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI BELL, MICHAEL J · 2016 to 2021
$25.6M
Improving Cardiovascular Drug Safety With Automated Bleeding ClassificationK08HL136850 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF UTAH · PI SHAH, RASHMEE U. · 2017 to 2020
$652k
Use Frailty Status to Predict Postoperative Outcomes in Elderly PatientR56AG052536 · NIA · GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI BRAY, BRUCE EARL, ZENG, QING · 2016 to 2016
$616k
HSRD VA I01 HX002679NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001876NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL136850NHLBI NIH HHS K08HL136850NIA NIH HHS R56 AG052536NIA NIH HHS R56 AG052536-01A1NIH HHS UL1TR001876U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs CRE 12-315U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs CRE 12-321
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deep neural network models are emerging as an important method in healthcare delivery, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. Due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, deep neural networks are viewed by many as black boxes. For practical use, deep learning models require explanations that are intuitive to clinicians. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model to predict outcomes following major cardiovascular procedures, using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. We created a novel explanation for the prediction of the model by defining impact scores that associate clinical observations with the outcome. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted to the same dataset. We compared the impact scores and log odds ratios by calculating three types of correlations, which provided a partial validation of the impact scores. The deep neural network model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.787, compared to 0.746 for the logistic regression model. Moderate correlations were found between the impact scores and the log odds ratios. Impact scores generated by the explanation algorithm has the potential to shed light on the "black box" deep neural network model and could facilitate its adoption by clinicians.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsNeural Networks, ComputerHumansLogistic ModelsROC CurveClinical outcomeDeep neural networkMachine learningPredictive model

Identifiers

PMID33404886
PMCPMC7983057

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.