ArticleColombia medica (Cali, Colombia)2020
COVID-19: Adaptation of a model to predicting healthcare resources needs in Valle del Cauca, Colombia.
Article in Colombia medica (Cali, Colombia), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic literature review on public health and healthcare resources for pandemic preparedness planning.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Optimizing Emergency Response in Hospitals: A Systematic Review of Surge Capacity Planning and Crisis Resource Management.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Article
- Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning-A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Management of hospital beds and ventilators in the Gauteng province, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundValle del Cauca is the region with the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in Colombia (>50,000 on September 7, 2020). Due to the lack of anti-COVID-19 therapies, decision-makers require timely and accurate data to estimate the incidence of disease and the availability of hospital resources to contain the pandemic.
methodsWe adapted an existing model to the local context to forecast COVID-19 incidence and hospital resource use assuming different scenarios: (1) the implementation of quarantine from September 1
resultsWe estimated 67,700 cases by October 15
conclusionSlowly lifting social distancing restrictions and reopening the economy is not expected to result in full resource depletion by October if the daily growth rate is maintained below 8%. Increasing the number of available beds provides a safeguard against slightly higher infection rates. Predictive models can be iteratively used to obtain nuanced predictions to aid decision-making.
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