ArticleBMJ open2021
Developing and validating a model for predicting 7-day mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department: an initial alarm score by a prospective prediction model study.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Quantifying the Drivers of Survival: A Matched Cohort Study of Trauma Center-Level Differences.The Journal of surgical research · 2025Article
- An effective multi-step feature selection framework for clinical outcome prediction using electronic medical records.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Mortality after major bleeding in Asian atrial fibrillation patients receiving different direct oral anticoagulants: a nationwide, propensity score study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Observational
- Prognostic tools for elderly patients with sepsis: in search of new predictive models.Internal and emergency medicine · 2021Article
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7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo set up a prediction model for the 7-day in-hospital mortality of patients admitted from the emergency department (ED) because it is high but no appropriate initial alarm score is available.
designThis is a prospective cohort study for prediction model development.
settingIn a tertiary referred hospital in northern Taiwan.
participantsED-admitted medical patients in hospitalist care wards were enrolled during May 2010 to October 2016. Two-thirds of them were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort for development of the model and cross-validation was performed in the validation cohort. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURED: 7-day in-hospital mortality.
resultsDuring the study period, 8649 patients were enrolled for analysis. The mean age was 71.05 years, and 51.91% were male. The most common admission diagnoses were pneumonia (36%) and urinary tract infection (20.05%). In the derivation cohort, multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression revealed that a low Barthel Index Score, triage level 1 at the ED, presence of cancer, metastasis and admission diagnoses of pneumonia and sepsis were independently associated with 7 days in-hospital mortality. Based on the probability developed from the multivariable model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the derivation group was 0.81 (0.79-0.85). The result in the validation cohort was comparable. The prediction score modified by the six independent factors had high sensitivity of 88.03% and a negative predictive value of 99.51% for a cut-off value of 4, whereas the specificity and positive predictive value were 89.61% and 10.55%, respectively, when the cut-off value was a score of 6.
conclusionThe 7-day in-hospital mortality in the hospitalist care ward is 2.8%. The initial alarm score could help clinicians to prioritise or exclude patients who need urgent and intensive care.
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