ArticleEntropy (Basel, Switzerland)2020
Analytical Parameter Estimation of the SIR Epidemic Model. Applications to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Article in Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Article
- Fitting Early Phases of the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparison of the Performances of Used Models.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- COVID-19, traffic demand, and activity restriction in China: A national assessment.Travel behaviour & society · 2023Article
- Dynamics of Feline Coronavirus and FIP: A Compartmental Modeling Approach.Veterinary medicine international · 2023Article
- A simple epidemic model for semi-closed community reveals the hidden outbreak risk in nursing homes, prisons, and residential universities.International journal of dynamics and control · 2022Article
- The influence of quadratic Lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Nonlinear control of infection spread based on a deterministic SEIR model.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Review
- Baseline Accuracies of Forecasting COVID-19 Cases in Russian Regions on a Year in Retrospect Using Basic Statistical and Machine Learning Methods.Procedia computer science · 2021Article
- Susceptible-Infected-Removed Mathematical Model under Deep Learning in Hospital Infection Control of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2021Article
- Injurious information propagation and its global stability considering activity and normalized recovering rate.PloS one · 2021Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the mathematical community to derive an explicit solution. The present paper reports novel analytical results and numerical algorithms suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. Notably, a series solution of the incidence variable of the model is derived. It is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, which is a solution of a non-elementary integral equation. The paper introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The approach is applied to the case study of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in five European countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Incidence and case fatality data obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) are analysed and the model parameters are estimated and compared.
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