Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33392389›Full record

ArticleApplied network science2020

Network model and analysis of the spread of Covid-19 with social distancing.

Parul Maheshwari, Réka Albert

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Applied network science, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
0.1field-weighted citation impact, top 50% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 citations in OpenAlex.

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  7. Epidemic Diffusion Network of Spain: A Mobility Model to Characterize the Transmission Routes of Disease.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
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  15. Mathematical modeling applied to epidemics: an overview.The Sao Paulo journal of mathematical sciences · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Parul MaheshwariDepartment of Physics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2007-6937
Réka AlbertDepartment of Physics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA.
Pennsylvania State University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The first mitigation response to the Covid-19 pandemic was to limit person-to-person interaction as much as possible. This was implemented by the temporary closing of many workplaces and people were required to follow social distancing. Networks are a great way to represent interactions among people and the temporary severing of these interactions. Here, we present a network model of human-human interactions that could be mediators of disease spread. The nodes of this network are individuals and different types of edges denote family cliques, workplace interactions, interactions arising from essential needs, and social interactions. Each individual can be in one of four states: susceptible, infected, immune, and dead. The network and the disease parameters are informed by the existing literature on Covid-19. Using this model, we simulate the spread of an infectious disease in the presence of various mitigation scenarios. For example, lockdown is implemented by deleting edges that denote non-essential interactions. We validate the simulation results with the real data by matching the basic and effective reproduction numbers during different phases of the spread. We also simulate different possibilities of the slow lifting of the lockdown by varying the transmission rate as facilities are slowly opened but people follow prevention measures like wearing masks etc. We make predictions on the probability and intensity of a second wave of infection in each of these scenarios.

Indexed as

COVID-19Epidemic spreadingNetwork scienceReproduction numberSIR modelSocial network

Identifiers

PMID33392389
PMCPMC7770744
OpenAlexW3035488716

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.