ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2021
A Mathematical Modeling Study: Assessing Impact of Mismatch Between Influenza Vaccine Strains and Circulating Strains in Hajj.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The influenza virus causes severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide every year. It spreads quickly in an overcrowded area like the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Vaccination is the primary strategy for protection against influenza. Due to the occurrence of antigenic shift and drift of the influenza virus, a mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains of influenza may occur. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains during Hajj, which brings together individuals from all over the globe. To this end, we develop deterministic mathematical models of influenza with different populations and strains from the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results show that the existence and duration of an influenza outbreak during Hajj depend on vaccine efficacy. In this concern, we discuss four scenarios: vaccine strains for both groups match/mismatch circulating strains, and vaccine strains match their target strains and mismatch the other strains. Further, there is a scenario where a novel pandemic strain arises. Our results show that as long as the influenza vaccines match their target strains, there will be no outbreak of strain H1N1 and only a small outbreak of strain H3N2. Mismatching for non-target strains causes about 10,000 new H3N2 cases, and mismatching for both strains causes about 2,000 more new H1N1 cases and 6,000 additional H3N2 cases during Hajj. Complete mismatch in a pandemic scenario may infect over 342,000 additional pilgrims (13.75%) and cause more cases in their home countries.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.