Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33382400›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism2021

A Panel of 6 Biomarkers Significantly Improves the Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes in the MONICA/KORA Study Population.

Barbara Thorand, Astrid Zierer, Mustafa Büyüközkan, Jan Krumsiek, Alina Bauer, Florian Schederecker, Julie Sudduth-Klinger, Christa Meisinger, Harald Grallert, Wolfgang Rathmann and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Barbara ThorandInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Astrid ZiererInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Mustafa BüyüközkanInstitute of Computational Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Jan KrumsiekInstitute of Computational Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Alina BauerInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Florian SchedereckerInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Julie Sudduth-KlingerTethys Bioscience Inc, Emeryville, CA, USA.
Christa MeisingerGerman Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany.
Harald GrallertInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Wolfgang RathmannGerman Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany.
Michael RodenGerman Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany.
Annette PetersInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Wolfgang KoenigGerman Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Munich Heart Alliance, Munich, Germany.
Christian HerderGerman Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany.
Cornelia HuthInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

contextImproved strategies to identify persons at high risk of type 2 diabetes are important to target costly preventive efforts to those who will benefit most.

objectiveThis work aimed to assess whether novel biomarkers improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes beyond noninvasive standard clinical risk factors alone or in combination with glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c).

methodsWe used a population-based case-cohort study for discovery (689 incident cases and 1850 noncases) and an independent cohort study (262 incident cases, 2549 noncases) for validation. An L1-penalized (lasso) Cox model was used to select the most predictive set among 47 serum biomarkers from multiple etiological pathways. All variables available from the noninvasive German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRSadapted) were forced into the models. The C index and the category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the selected biomarkers beyond the GDRSadapted model (plus HbA1c).

resultsInterleukin-1 receptor antagonist, insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2, soluble E-selectin, decorin, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were selected as the most relevant biomarkers. The simultaneous addition of these 6 biomarkers significantly improved the predictive performance both in the discovery (C index [95% CI], 0.053 [0.039-0.066]; cfNRI [95% CI], 67.4% [57.3%-79.5%]) and the validation study (0.034 [0.019-0.053]; 48.4% [35.6%-60.8%]). Significant improvements by these biomarkers were also seen on top of the GDRSadapted model plus HbA1c in both studies.

conclusionThe addition of 6 biomarkers significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes when added to a noninvasive clinical model or to a clinical model plus HbA1c.

Indexed as

AdultAgedBiomarkersCase-Control StudiesCohort StudiesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedBiomarkersbiomarkerscohort analysisrisk prediction modeltype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID33382400
PMCPMC7993565

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.