ArticleBMJ open2020
Projecting the prevalence of obesity in South Korea through 2040: a microsimulation modelling approach.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference, Readmission, and Healthcare Costs After Influenza- or Pneumonia-Related Hospitalization: A Sex-Stratified Nationwide Cohort Study in Korea.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Clinicopathologic differences before and after elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy according to obesity.World journal of clinical cases · 2025Article
- Epigenome-wide association study of BMI and waist-to-hip ratio and their associations with dietary patterns in Korean adults.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Anti-Obesity Effects ofInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
- Calculating epidemiological outcomes from simulated longitudinal data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Korean National Burden of Disease: The Importance of Diabetes Management.Diabetes & metabolism journal · 2024Review
- Adipose tissue macrophage heterogeneity in the single-cell genomics era.Molecules and cells · 2024Review
- Sex-differential effect of waist circumference on new-onset cerebral infarction: a nationwide cohort study.Frontiers in neurology · 2024Article
- Effects of Consuming Heat-Treated Dodamssal Brown Rice Containing Resistant Starch on Glucose Metabolism in Humans.Nutrients · 2023Article
- Article
- Influence of Obesity and Fluid Balance on Operative Outcomes in Hepatic Resection.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
- Dissecting the clinical relevance of polygenic risk score for obesity-a cross-sectional, longitudinal analysis.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2022Article
- NovelInternational journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- Clinical Characteristics and Current Managements for Patients with Chronic Subdural Hematoma : A Retrospective Multicenter Pilot Study in the Republic of Korea.Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveTo project the prevalence of obesity in 2040 among individuals 19 years and older in South Korea. DESIGN, SETTING, AND
participantsUsing the 'Population Health Model-body mass index' (BMI) microsimulation model, the prevalence of obesity in Korean adults 19 years and older was projected until 2040. The model integrated individual survey data from the Korea Health Panel Survey of 2011 and 2012, population statistics based on resident registration, population projections and complete life tables categorised by sex and age. Birth rate, life expectancy and international migration were based on a medium growth scenario. The base population of Korean adults in 2012, devised through data aggregation, was 39 842 730. The prediction equations were formulated using BMI as the dependent variable; the individual's sex, age, smoking status, physical activity and preceding year's BMI were used as predictive factors. OUTCOME MEASURE: BMI categorised by sex.
resultsThe median BMI for Korean adults in 2040 was expected to be 23.55 kg/m
conclusionsWe explored the possibility of applying and expanding on the concept of microsimulation in the field of healthcare by combining data sources available in Korea and found that more than half of the adults in this study population will be preobese, and the proportions of 'obesity' and 'normal' will decrease compared with those in 2012. The results of our study will aid in devising healthy strategies and spreading public awareness for preventing this condition.
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