ArticlePLoS computational biology2020
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the time-varying effective reproduction number via Cycle Threshold-based Transformer.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Forecasting the relative abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- COVID-19 spreading patterns in family clusters reveal gender roles in China.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Infection control and the prevalence, management and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infections in mental health wards in London, UK: lessons learned from wave 1 to wave 2.BJPsych open · 2022Article
- A review on COVID-19 transmission, epidemiological features, prevention and vaccination.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- COVID-19 epidemic and public health interventions in Shanghai, China: Statistical analysis of transmission, correlation and conversion.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Article
- Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Impact of tiered restrictions on human activities and the epidemiology of the second wave of COVID-19 in Italy.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Evaluating the effect of Chinese control measures on COVID-19 via temporal reproduction number estimation.PloS one · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In January 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. Six weeks later, the outbreak was successfully contained. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of interventions in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimated the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6-3.7). The epidemic was self-sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95% CI: 31-68 days), causing 9,216 more cases (95% CI: 1,317-25,545).
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