ArticleMathematical methods in the applied sciences2021
A multiregional extension of the SIR model, with application to the COVID-19 spread in Italy.
Article in Mathematical methods in the applied sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- A new framework for polynomial approximation to differential equations.Advances in computational mathematics · 2022Article
- Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model. Which approximant to use?Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2021Article
- A multiregional extension of the SIR model, with application to the COVID-19 spread in Italy.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2021Article
- Model predictive control to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak in a multi-region scenario.Annual reviews in control · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
The paper concerns a new forecast model that includes the class of undiagnosed infected people, and has a multiregion extension, to cope with the in-time and in-space heterogeneity of an epidemic. The model is applied to the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the center and south of Italy, including the two main islands. It has proved to be a robust and reliable tool for the forecast of the total and active cases, which can be also used to simulate different scenarios. In particular, the model is able to address a number of issues, such as assessing the adoption of the
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