ArticleSouthern economic journal2021
The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19.
Article in Southern economic journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
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37 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Back to school: The effect of school visits during COVID-19 on COVID-19 outcomes.Journal of health economics · 2025Article
- Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Outdoor social distancing behaviors changed during a pandemic: A longitudinal analysis using street view imagery.PloS one · 2024Article
- Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021.Nature human behaviour · 2023Article
- The complex interplay between weather, social activity, and COVID-19 in the US.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods.Journal of the Japanese and international economies · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Positivity Following an In-Person Surgical Society Meeting: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study.The Journal of surgical research · 2022Article
- Throwing caution to the wind: How hurricanes affect COVID-19 spread.Health economics · 2022Article
- The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates in Hawaii.Vaccines · 2022Article
- COVID-19 and Attendance Demand for Professional Sport in Japan: A Multilevel Analysis of Repeated Cross-Sectional National Data during the Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Public health implications of opening National Football League stadiums during the COVID-19 pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Geospatial Analysis of a COVID-19 Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin - Madison: Potential Role of a Cluster of Local Bars.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark during UEFA European championships.Epidemiology and infection · 2022Article
- The dynamical formation of ephemeral groups on networks and their effects on epidemics spreading.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread.Journal of urban economics · 2022Article
- JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth.Journal of urban economics · 2022Article
- Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?: Evidence from a natural experiment.Journal of population economics · 2022Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Large in-person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the "highest risk" for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7-16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask-wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID-19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference-in-differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4-12.5% increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID-19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.
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