Observational studyTherapeutic advances in respiratory disease
Modified and simplified clinically important deterioration: multidimensional indices of short-term disease trajectory to predict future exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Observational study in Therapeutic advances in respiratory disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.
- Is it essential for the combination of GOLD C and D groups in COPD patients: A multicenter retrospective study?Medicine · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Disease Progression and Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Clinically important deterioration in a mild-moderate COPD population.ERJ open research · 2025Article
- The effects of different inhalation therapies on less symptomatic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients in a Chinese population: a real-world study.Annals of medicine · 2023Observational
- The impact of impaired sleep quality on symptom change and future exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Respiratory research · 2023Article
- Article
- Comparation of predictive value of CAT and change in CAT in the short term for future exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Annals of medicine · 2022Article
- The Characteristics of Airflow Limitation and Future Exacerbations in Different GOLD Groups of COPD Patients.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseObservational
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsVarious prediction indices based on the single time point observation have been proposed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little was known about disease trajectory as a predictor of future exacerbations. Our study explored the association between disease trajectory and future exacerbations, and validated the predictive value of the modified and simplified short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).
methodsThis study was a multicenter, prospective observational study. Patients with COPD were recruited into our study and followed up for 18 months. The modified CID (CID-C) was defined as a decrease of 100 mL in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or suffering exacerbations, or increase of 2 units in COPD Assessment Test (CAT) during the first 6 months follow-up. Simplified CID was defined when excluding CAT from the CID-C model.
resultsA total of 127 patients were enrolled in our final analysis. Compared with patients without exacerbations during the period of the 6th to the 18th month, patients with exacerbations were more likely to have frequent short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months (2.14
conclusionDisease trajectory, including both the CID-C and the Simplified CID had significant predictive value for future exacerbations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.