ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2021
A demographic scaling model for estimating the total number of COVID-19 infections.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Description and analysis of representative COVID-19 cases-A retrospective cohort study.PloS one · 2021Trial
- COVID-19 trends across borders: Identifying correlations among countries.The Journal of international medical research · 2024Article
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- Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures.Health care management science · 2023Article
- Nanomaterials-based sensors for the detection of COVID-19: A review.Bioengineering & translational medicine · 2022Review
- COVID-19 morbidity in Afghanistan: a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- Effect of Repeated Home Quarantine on Anxiety, Depression, and PTSD Symptoms in a Chinese Population During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-sectional Study.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2022Article
- Optimal control of high-rise building mechanical ventilation system for achieving low risk of COVID-19 transmission and ventilative cooling.Sustainable cities and society · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infections in 165 countries over time.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Article
- A particle swarm optimization approach for predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths.Scientific reports · 2021Review
- A simple mathematical model for the evaluation of the long first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Detection of COVID-19 Virus on Surfaces Using Photonics: Challenges and Perspectives.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Data suggest COVID-19 affected numbers greatly exceeded detected numbers, in four European countries, as per a delayed SEIQR model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.Health & place · 2021Article
- Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.PloS one · 2021Observational
- On an interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model.Annual reviews in control · 2021Article
- Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Biosensors: frontiers in rapid detection of COVID-19.3 Biotech · 2020Review
- No clear association emerges between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19 fatality rates from macro-level analyses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUnderstanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical information for monitoring the pandemic. The actual number of infections potentially exceeds the number of confirmed cases. DEVELOPMENT: We develop a demographic scaling model to estimate COVID-19 infections, based on minimal data requirements: COVID-19-related deaths, infection fatality rates (IFRs), and life tables. As many countries lack IFR estimates, we scale them from a reference country based on remaining lifetime to better match the context in a target population with respect to age structure, health conditions and medical services. We introduce formulas to account for bias in input data and provide a heuristic to assess whether local seroprevalence estimates are representative for the total population. APPLICATION: Across 10 countries with most reported COVID-19 deaths as of 23 July 2020, the number of infections is estimated to be three [95% prediction interval: 2-8] times the number of confirmed cases. Cross-country variation is high. The estimated number of infections is 5.3 million for the USA, 1.8 million for the UK, 1.4 million for France, and 0.4 million for Peru, or more than one, six, seven and more than one times the number of confirmed cases, respectively. Our central prevalence estimates for entire countries are markedly lower than most others based on local seroprevalence studies.
conclusionsThe national infection estimates indicate that the pandemic is far more widespread than the numbers of confirmed cases suggest. Some local seroprevalence estimates largely deviate from their corresponding national mean and are unlikely to be representative for the total population.
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