ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2021
Per-partnership transmission probabilities for Chlamydia trachomatis infection: evidence synthesis of population-based survey data.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluating the home-based intervention strategy (HIS-UK) to reduce new chlamydia infection among young men aged 16-25 years by promoting correct and consistent condom use: findings from a randomised controlled trial.BMC health services research · 2024Trial
- Sequential Sex Practices and the Likelihood of Bacterial Sexually Transmitted Infections and Urethritis in Men Who Have Sex With Women.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemic thresholds across sexual behavior groups in the UK Biobank.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2026Article
- Vaccination as a strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis control: a global mathematical modeling analysis.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Controversies and evidence on Chlamydia testing and treatment in asymptomatic women and men who have sex with men: a narrative review.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundChlamydia is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection worldwide. Mathematical models used to plan and assess control measures rely on accurate estimates of chlamydia's natural history, including the probability of transmission within a partnership. Several methods for estimating transmission probability have been proposed, but all have limitations.
methodsWe have developed a new model for estimating per-partnership chlamydia transmission probabilities from infected to uninfected individuals, using data from population-based surveys. We used data on sexual behaviour and prevalent chlamydia infection from the second UK National Study of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-2) and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2009-2014 (NHANES) for Bayesian inference of average transmission probabilities, across all new heterosexual partnerships reported. Posterior distributions were estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling using the Stan software.
resultsPosterior median male-to-female transmission probabilities per partnership were 32.1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 18.4-55.9%] (Natsal-2) and 34.9% (95%CrI 22.6-54.9%) (NHANES). Female-to-male transmission probabilities were 21.4% (95%CrI 5.1-67.0%) (Natsal-2) and 4.6% (95%CrI 1.0-13.1%) (NHANES). Posterior predictive checks indicated a well-specified model, although there was some discrepancy between reported and predicted numbers of partners, especially in women.
conclusionsThe model provides statistically rigorous estimates of per-partnership transmission probability, with associated uncertainty, which is crucial for modelling and understanding chlamydia epidemiology and control. Our estimates incorporate data from several sources, including population-based surveys, and use information contained in the correlation between number of partners and the probability of chlamydia infection. The evidence synthesis approach means that it is easy to include further data as it becomes available.
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