ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2021
Development and validation of a prognostic model based on comorbidities to predict COVID-19 severity: a population-based study.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
42 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of COVID-19 on nephropathy in diabetes mellitus type-II patients: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.BMC nephrology · 2024Pooled it
- Asthma and COPD as co-morbidities in patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Effects of SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with cancer on mortality, ICU admission and incidence: a systematic review with meta-analysis involving 709,908 participants and 31,732 cancer patients.Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology · 2023Pooled it
- Methodological Considerations on COVID-19 Mortality in Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2022Pooled it
- Asthma and COVID-19 risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The European respiratory journal · 2022Pooled it
- A meta-analysis on the risk factors adjusted association between cardiovascular disease and COVID-19 severity.BMC public health · 2021Pooled it
- Inhaled ciclesonide for outpatient treatment of COVID-19 in adults at risk of adverse outcomes: a randomised controlled trial (COVERAGE).Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2022Trial
- Machine Learning in Primary Health Care: The Research Landscape.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Charlson comorbidity index has no incremental value for mortality risk prediction in nursing home residents with COVID-19 disease.BMC geriatrics · 2025Observational
- Development and validation of a risk prediction model for hospital admission in COVID-19 patients presenting to primary care.The European journal of general practice · 2024Article
- Predictors of Intensive Care Unit Admissions in Patients Presenting with Coronavirus Disease 2019.Avicenna journal of medicine · 2024Article
- Significant association between asthma and a lower risk of mortality among COVID-19 patients in Spain: A meta-analysis.Qatar medical journal · 2024Review
- A network meta-analysis of association between cardiometabolic risk factors and COVID-19 outcome severity.Journal of diabetes · 2023Article
- Direct impact of 2 years of COVID-19 on chronic disease patients: a population-based study in a large hard-hit Italian region.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Latency function estimation under the mixture cure model when the cure status is available.Lifetime data analysis · 2023Article
- A study protocol of external validation of eight COVID-19 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk in older populations in a hospital, primary care, and nursing home setting.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2023Article
- Is SARS-COV-2 associated with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency?Journal of thoracic disease · 2023Review
- Characteristics and outcomes of adult patients with asthma presenting with COVID-19: A comparative cohort study.Qatar medical journal · 2023Article
- Incidence of symptomatic Covid-19 infections in patients with mastocytosis and chronic myeloid leukemia: A comparison with the general Austrian population.European journal of haematology · 2023Article
- Development and validation of a prediction model for mechanical ventilation based on comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe prognosis of patients with COVID-19 infection is uncertain. We derived and validated a new risk model for predicting progression to disease severity, hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality in patients with COVID-19 infection (Gal-COVID-19 scores).
methodsThis is a retrospective cohort study of patients with COVID-19 infection confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in Galicia, Spain. Data were extracted from electronic health records of patients, including age, sex and comorbidities according to International Classification of Primary Care codes (ICPC-2). Logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of disease severity. Calibration and discrimination were evaluated to assess model performance.
resultsThe incidence of infection was 0.39% (10 454 patients). A total of 2492 patients (23.8%) required hospitalization, 284 (2.7%) were admitted to the ICU and 544 (5.2%) died. The variables included in the models to predict severity included age, gender and chronic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, liver disease, chronic kidney disease and haematological cancer. The models demonstrated a fair-good fit for predicting hospitalization {AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve] 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76, 0.78]}, admission to ICU [AUC 0.83 (95%CI 0.81, 0.85)] and death [AUC 0.89 (95%CI 0.88, 0.90)].
conclusionsThe Gal-COVID-19 scores provide risk estimates for predicting severity in COVID-19 patients. The ability to predict disease severity may help clinicians prioritize high-risk patients and facilitate the decision making of health authorities.
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