Observational studyCancer medicine2021
"3-Day Surprise Question" to predict prognosis of advanced cancer patients with impending death: Multicenter prospective observational study.
Observational study in Cancer medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Surprise Question and clinician-predicted prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ supportive & palliative care · 2024Pooled it
- Prognostic evaluation in patients with advanced cancer in the last months of life: ESMO Clinical Practice Guideline.ESMO open · 2023Guideline
- The utility of the surprise question: A useful tool for identifying patients nearing the last phase of life? A systematic review and meta-analysis.Palliative medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Wireless patches for continuous vital sign monitoring, symptoms and medication at the end-of-life in the palliative care unit: A prospective observational study.Journal of clinical monitoring and computing · 2026Observational
- Quality for All: Clinical Trial Enrollment and End-of-Life Care in Solid and Hematologic Malignancies.Cancer medicine · 2025Article
- Determining timeframes to death for imminently dying patients: a retrospective cohort study.BMC palliative care · 2025Article
- 'How long do you think?' Unresponsive dying patients in a specialist palliative care service: A consecutive cohort study.Palliative medicine · 2024Article
- Factors associated with good death of patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in Japan.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2022Article
- Prognostication of the Last Days of Life.Cancer research and treatment · 2022Article
- Prospective Comparison of Medical Oncologists and a Machine Learning Model to Predict 3-Month Mortality in Patients With Metastatic Solid Tumors.JAMA network open · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe study aimed to clarify the efficacy of the "3-Day Surprise Question (3DSQ)" in predicting the prognosis for advanced cancer patients with impending death. PATIENTS AND
methodsThis study was a part of multicenter prospective observational study which investigated the dying process in advanced cancer patients in Japan. For patients with a Palliative Performance Scale ≤20, the 3DSQ "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next 3 days?" was answered by their physicians. In addition to the sensitivity and specificity of the 3DSQ, the characteristics of patients who survived longer than expected were examined via multivariate analysis.
resultsAmong the 1896 patients enrolled, 1411 were evaluated. Among 1179 (83.6%) patients who were classified into the "Not surprised" group, 636 patients died within 3 days. Among 232 (16.4%) patients of "Yes surprised" group, 194 patients lived longer than 3 days. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 3DSQ were 94.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 92.7% to 95.8%), 26.3% (95% CI: 24.8% to 27.6%), 53.9% (95% CI: 53.0% to 54.7%), and 83.6% (95% CI: 78.7% to 87.7%), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed palpable radial artery, absent respiration with mandibular movement, SpO
conclusionsThe 3-Day Surprise Question can be a useful screening tool to identify advanced cancer patients with impending death.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.