ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2021
Using factor analyses to estimate the number of female sex workers across Malawi from multiple regional sources.
Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Differentiating the incidence and burden of HIV by age among women who sell sex: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Pooled it
- Population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa: collation and synthesis of survey data, 2010-23.The Lancet. Global health · 2024Article
- Leveraging Routinely Collected Program Data to Inform Extrapolated Size Estimates for Key Populations in Namibia: Small Area Estimation Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risks are heterogeneous in nature even in generalized epidemics. However, data are often missing for those at highest risk of HIV, including female sex workers. Statistical models may be used to address data gaps where direct, empiric estimates do not exist.
methodsWe proposed a new size estimation method that combines multiple data sources (the Malawi Biological and Behavioral Surveillance Survey, the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts study, and the Malawi Demographic Household Survey). We used factor analysis to extract information from auxiliary variables and constructed a linear mixed effects model for predicting population size for all districts of Malawi.
resultsOn average, the predicted proportion of female sex workers among women of reproductive age across all districts was about 0.58%. The estimated proportions seemed reasonable in comparing with a recent study Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts II (PLACE II). Compared with using a single data source, we observed increased precision and better geographic coverage.
conclusionsWe illustrate how size estimates from different data sources may be combined for prediction. Applying this approach to other subpopulations in Malawi and to countries where size estimate data are lacking can ultimately inform national modeling processes and estimate the distribution of risks and priorities for HIV prevention and treatment programs.
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