ArticleThe Science of the total environment2021
The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, demographic, social, and climatic factors on the initial growth rate of COVID-19: A cross-country study.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 89 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission.Environmental research · 2022Pooled it
- The impact of geo-environmental factors on global COVID-19 transmission: A review of evidence and methodology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Public health effects of travel-related policies on the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods systematic review.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.The Journal of infection · 2021Pooled it
- SEIRV epidemiological model for COVID 19 with Holling type II functional response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Identifying indicators of "success" in managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: insights from an interdisciplinary expert consultation.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Article
- Time series analysis of the impact of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Changchun, China.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socially vulnerable communities: the case of Jane and Finch in Toronto, Ontario.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Georgia: Public Health Implications.Southern medical journal · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Vaccination and Healthcare Demand.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Determinants of COVID-19 cases and deaths in OECD countries.Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health · 2023Article
- Big data- and artificial intelligence-based hot-spot analysis of COVID-19: Gauteng, South Africa, as a case study.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- Possibility of the COVID-19 third wave in India: mapping from second wave to third wave.Indian journal of physics and proceedings of the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (2004) · 2023Article
- Article
- Do the determinants of COVID-19 transmission differ by epidemic wave? Evidence from U.S. counties.Cities (London, England) · 2022Article
- Analyzing the GHSI puzzle of whether highly developed countries fared worse in COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Does the internet help governments contain the COVID-19 pandemic? Multi-country evidence from online human behaviour.Government information quarterly · 2022Article
- Drivers and forecasts of multiple waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A systematic analysis based on an interpretable machine learning framework.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- The Effect of Ramadan and COVID-19 on the Relationship between Physical Activity and Burnout among Teachers.Nutrients · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced that the COVID-19 disease developed into a global pandemic. In the present paper, we aimed at analysing how the implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) as well as climatic, social, and demographic variables affected the initial growth rate of COVID-19. In more detail, we aimed at identifying and assessing all the predictors in a whole picture of the COVID-19 outbreak and the effectiveness of the response of the countries to the pandemic. It can be expected, indeed, that there is a subtle and complex interplay among the various parameters. As such, we estimated the initial growth rate of COVID-19 for countries across the globe, and used a multiple linear regression model to study the association between the initial growth rate and NPI as well as pre-existing country characteristics (climatic, social and demographic variables measured before the current epidemic began). We obtained a mean initial growth rate of 0.120 (SD 0.076), in the range 0.023-0.315. Ten (8 pre-existing country characteristics and 2 NPI) out of 29 factors considered (21 pre-existing country characteristics and 8 NPI) were associated with the initial growth of COVID-19. Population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million, PM2.5 air pollution mean annual exposure, life expectancy, hospital beds available, urban population, Global Health Security detection index and restrictions on international movement had the most significant effects on the initial growth of COVID-19. Based on available data and the results we obtained, NPI put in place by governments around the world alone may not have had a significant impact on the initial growth of COVID-19. Only restrictions on international movements had a relative significance with respect to the initial growth rate, whereas demographic, climatic, and social variables seemed to play a greater role in the initial growth rate of COVID-19.
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