ArticleGlobal environmental change : human and policy dimensions2020
Climate-Induced Migration and Unemployment in Middle-Income Africa.
Article in Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- An environment and comprehensive wellbeing (ECW) conceptual framework: exploring environmental relationships with objective and subjective wellbeing.Population and environment · 2026Article
- Climatic change and household-level demographic dynamics: concepts and empirical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa.Population and environment · 2024Article
- Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata.Population and development review · 2024Article
- Temperature anomalies undermine the health of reproductive-age women in low- and middle-income countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Temperature anomalies undermine the health of reproductive-age women in low- and middle-income countries.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Child Fostering in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa.Population and environment · 2023Article
- Heat and Drought Reduce Subnational Population Growth in the Global Tropics.Population and environment · 2023Article
- "Measuring the Environmental Context of Child Growth in Burkina Faso".Population and environment · 2023Article
- Time to Mainstream the Environment into Migration Theory?The International migration review · 2023Article
- The Childhood Origins of Climate-Induced Mobility and Immobility.Population and development review · 2022Article
- Climate Anomalies and Birth Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.Climatic change · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these individuals to climate exposures in their origins and estimate climatic effects on migration using a fixed-effects regression model. We show that climate anomalies affect mobility in all three countries. Specifically, mobility declines by 19% with a 1-standard deviation increase in temperature in Botswana. Equivalent changes in precipitation cause declines in migration in Botswana (11%) and Kenya (10%), and increases in migration in Zambia (24%). The mechanisms underlying these effects appear to differ by country. Negative associations between precipitation anomalies, unemployment, and inactivity suggest migration declines may be due to an increased local demand for workers to offset production risk, while migration increases may be indicative of new opportunities in destinations. These country-specific findings highlight the contextually-specific nature of climate-migration relationships, and do not support claims that climate change is widely contributing to urbanization across Africa.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.