ArticleScientific reports2020
A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
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27 citing papers in PubMed, 92 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Integrating socio-psychological factors in the SEIR model optimized by a genetic algorithm for COVID-19 trend analysis.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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- Dynamics of two-step reversible enzymatic reaction under fractional derivative with Mittag-Leffler Kernel.PloS one · 2023Article
- Toward an efficient approximate analytical solution for 4-compartment COVID-19 fractional mathematical model.Journal of computational and applied mathematics · 2022Article
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- Theoretical and numerical analysis of COVID-19 pandemic model with non-local and non-singular kernels.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Mathematical Models Supporting Control of COVID-19.China CDC weekly · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Assessing the Dynamic Outcomes of Containment Strategies against COVID-19 under Different Public Health Governance Structures: A Comparison between Pakistan and Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Estimating the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany via spline-based hierarchical modelling of death counts.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A global report on the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and hospitalization: A fractional order model with non-local kernel.Computational biology and chemistry · 2022Article
- Effect of temperature and humidity on coronavirus infection in Pakistan.Gene reports · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Recently, novel coronavirus is a serious global issue and having a negative impact on the economy of the whole world. Like other countries, it also effected the economy and people of Pakistan. According to the publicly reported data, the first case of novel corona virus in Pakistan was reported on 27th February 2020. The aim of the present study is to describe the mathematical model and dynamics of COVID-19 in Pakistan. To investigate the spread of coronavirus in Pakistan, we develop the SEIR time fractional model with newly, developed fractional operator of Atangana-Baleanu. We present briefly the analysis of the given model and discuss its applications using world health organization (WHO) reported data for Pakistan. We consider the available infection cases from 19th March 2020, till 31st March 2020 and accordingly, various parameters are fitted or estimated. It is worth noting that we have calculated the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] which shows that virus is spreading rapidly. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at disease free equilibrium DFE and endemic equilibriums EE is performed to observe the dynamics and transmission of the model. Finally, the AB fractional model is solved numerically. To show the effect of the various embedded parameters like fractional parameter [Formula: see text] on the model, various graphs are plotted. It is worth noting that the base of our investigation, we have predicted the spread of disease for next 200 days.
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