ArticleRevista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical2020
Dengue in northeastern Brazil: a spatial and temporal perspective.
Article in Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Space-time dynamics of the dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2024: an insight for decision making.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Space-time dispersion of dengue occurrence in epidemic and non-epidemic years in a municipality in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, MG, 2011 to 2017.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
introductionThe state of Ceará (Brazilian Northeast) has a high incidence of dengue. Therefore, we aimed to characterize the temporal patterns and spatial distribution of dengue cases in Ceará during 2001-2019.
methodsA spatiotemporal ecological study was performed with secondary data. Time-trend analysis was performed using a segmented log-linear regression model to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and the annual percentage change (APC) in incidence of dengue. We also performed spatiotemporal analysis to identify the place, time, and relative risk (RR) of dengue clusters.
resultsThere were 539,653 dengue cases. The AAPC reduced over time (-9.5%; 95% confidance interval [CI]: -18.3; -0.3). Three trends were identified-2001-2004: APC=-20.9% (95% CI: -65.1 to 44.8), 2005-2015: APC=7.9% (95% CI: -6.0 to 98.9), and 2016-2019: APC=-48.8% (95% CI: -83.0 to -6.1). During 2001-2007, 10 significant clusters were identified (RR=3.57-14.38: n=4 and RR=0.05-0.39: n=6). During 2008-2013, there was 1 cluster in the western region (RR= 3.40) and four other clusters (RR=0.02-0.15). The last period presented 5 high-RR clusters (RR=2.95-9.24). The low-RR clusters were located in the central-north, central-south, south, and northwest regions. However, the central-west region remained a high-RR cluster region throughout the study period.
conclusionsDengue showed a decreasing incidence. During the epidemic years, the southern, eastern, and western regions presented high-risk clusters. Introduction of a new dengue serotype in a low-RR area can cause explosive outbreaks due to population susceptibility.
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