ArticleVaccines2020
Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?
Article in Vaccines, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- An empirical analysis of American Passenger's willingness to fly in commercial airplanes after vaccination against COVID-19.Technology in society · 2023Article
- In or Out? Identifying the Factors Playing a Role in Covid-19 Decision Making in Turkiye.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness · 2023Article
- Changes in preventive behaviour after COVID-19 vaccination in Thailand: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the roll out of covid-19 vaccines.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Article
- Identify and measure the degree of over-prevention behaviors in the post-COVID-19 era in China.BMC public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among the staff of the Bologna Health Trust, Italy, December 2020-April 2021.Acta bio-medica : Atenei Parmensis · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (β) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned-as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine-then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.