ArticleDiabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy2020
Forecasting the Populations of Overweight and Obese Chinese Adults.
Article in Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Factors associated with hyperuricemia in overweight or obese adults of Shenzhen, China.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Associations of lifestyle behaviors with overweight and obesity: a cross-sectional study in Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in nutrition · 2026Article
- Association between changes in Chinese visceral adiposity index and cardiovascular disease among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Dihydroquercetin in Weight Control: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Preclinical Studies.Pharmaceuticals (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Promoting Physical Activity and Nutrition Through Health Education: Insights from a Study on Middle Eastern Adolescents in Malaysia.The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS · 2025Article
- Stomach cancer epidemic in Chinese mainland: Current trends and future predictions.Chinese medical journal · 2025Article
- Burden and risk factors for gallbladder and biliary tract diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and burden predictions of risk factors for the next 15 years.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Prevalence and associated factors of adult overweight and obesity in Southwestern China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Trends and regional variations in chronic diseases and their risk factors in China: an observational study based on National Health Service Surveys.International journal for equity in health · 2023Observational
- Emotional Eating as a Mediator in the Relationship between Dietary Restraint and Body Weight.Nutrients · 2023Article
- Trends for the Association between Body Mass Index and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease among the Japanese Population: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS).Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2023Article
- The epidemic of acute lymphoid leukemia in China: current trends and future prediction.Frontiers in oncology · 2023Article
- Perceptions and Attitudes Toward Obesity and its Management in Migrants and Rural Residents in China: a Cross-sectional Pilot Study.Obesity surgery · 2022Article
- The epidemic of stroke mortality attributed to high body mass index in mainland China: Current trends and future prediction.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The epidemic of thyroid cancer in China: Current trends and future prediction.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Article
- Temporal Trend of Urolithiasis Incidence in China: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.International journal of general medicine · 2021Article
- Stay Slim or Get Fat?: An Examination of the "Jolly Fat" Effect in Chinese Older Adults.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Article
- Trends in Mortality Rates for Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias Over 30 Years in China.American journal of Alzheimer's disease and other dementiasArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeThe objective of this study was to forecast the prevalence rates and the populations of overweight and obese in Chinese adults for 2030. MATERIALS AND
methodsNine waves of China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data from 1991 to 2015 were used. A polynomial regression model was fitted to obtain the average BMI change trajectory of the population born in different years according to different sexes and residence areas (urban and rural). The model fitted to CHNS 2015 survey data was used to forecast the distribution of BMI and the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in 15 years. The United Nations population forecast was then used to predict the proportions of overweight obese adults in all age groups in China in 2030.
resultsThe prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were projected to increase in both sexes and all geographic areas in future. By 2030, urban males will have the highest prevalence of overweight, 50.7% (95% CI: 47.5%, 53.9%). Except urban males, the prevalence of overweight and obesity in rural areas will exceed that in urban for both sexes. In 2030, the numbers of overweight and obese people in China aged 20-89 years will reach 540 million and 150 million, respectively, which are 2.8 and 7.5 times higher compared to prevalences in 2000. In 2030, the number of overweight and obese people in China aged 60-89 years will reach 200 million and 40 million, respectively, 6.3 and 8.5 times increments from the year 2000.
conclusionThe prevalence rates of overweight and obese in Chinese adults are projected to increase further, by 2030 more than half of adult males living in urban areas will be overweight. Combined with changes in the population age structure, overweight and obesity will have a huge impact on the health of the Chinese population over the next 15 years.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.