ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2020
Global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for covid-19 vaccination: descriptive study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 106 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
106 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 198 citations in OpenAlex.
- Vaccination and rheumatoid arthritis: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of data from 25,949,597 participants.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Economic evaluation of laboratory diagnostic test types in Covid-19 epidemic: A systematic review.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2022Pooled it
- Barriers to COVID-19 Health Products in Low-and Middle-Income Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Rapid Systematic Review and Evidence Synthesis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Global epidemiology of COVID-19 knowledge, attitude and practice: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ open · 2021Pooled it
- Vaccination against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of acceptability and its predictors.Preventive medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Gam-COVID-Vac, EpiVacCorona, and CoviVac effectiveness against lung injury during Delta and Omicron variant surges in St. Petersburg, Russia: a test-negative case-control study.Respiratory research · 2022Trial
- Trial
- Diagnostic performance of GAAD, PIVKA-II and AFP in hepatocellular carcinoma, chronic liver disease and healthy population: evidence from a Malaysian cohort.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 vaccination and mortality: a cross-national path analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Biguanides are associated with decreased early mortality and risk of acute kidney injury in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: a nationwide retrospective cohort study in Japan.Clinical and experimental nephrology · 2026Article
- Apathy, gait slowness, and executive dysfunction (AGED) triad: opportunities to predict and delay dementia onset.GeroScience · 2025Article
- Balancing fairness and efficiency in dynamic vaccine allocation during major infectious disease outbreaks.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- How urban versus rural population relates to COVID-19 booster vaccine hesitancy: A propensity score matching design study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Association Between Sociodemographic Factors and Vaccine Acceptance for Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in South Korea: Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Prophylactic Proton Pump Inhibitors in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Impact and Underprescription in a French Multicentric Cohort.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2024Article
- Body-Mounted MR-Conditional Robot for Minimally Invasive Liver Intervention.Annals of biomedical engineering · 2024Article
- Article
- Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) Score is Associated with Overall Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Conventional Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis.Cardiovascular and interventional radiology · 2024Article
- Understanding facilitators and barriers to COVID-19 vaccination in the Zimbabwean population: a qualitative analysis.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The impacts of gradually terminating nonpharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis.Fundamental research · 2024Article
46 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Update of
Authors and funding
11 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo provide global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccination to inform country specific immunisation strategies on a global scale.
designDescriptive study.
setting194 member states of the World Health Organization. POPULATION: Target populations for covid-19 vaccination based on country specific characteristics and vaccine objectives (maintaining essential core societal services; reducing severe covid-19; reducing symptomatic infections and stopping virus transmission).
main outcome measureSize of target populations for covid-19 vaccination. Estimates use country specific data on population sizes stratified by occupation, age, risk factors for covid-19 severity, vaccine acceptance, and global vaccine production. These data were derived from a multipronged search of official websites, media sources, and academic journal articles.
resultsTarget population sizes for covid-19 vaccination vary markedly by vaccination goal and geographical region. Differences in demographic structure, presence of underlying conditions, and number of essential workers lead to highly variable estimates of target populations at regional and country levels. In particular, Europe has the highest share of essential workers (63.0 million, 8.9%) and people with underlying conditions (265.9 million, 37.4%); these two categories are essential in maintaining societal functions and reducing severe covid-19, respectively. In contrast, South East Asia has the highest share of healthy adults (777.5 million, 58.9%), a key target for reducing community transmission. Vaccine hesitancy will probably impact future covid-19 vaccination programmes; based on a literature review, 68.4% (95% confidence interval 64.2% to 72.6%) of the global population is willing to receive covid-19 vaccination. Therefore, the adult population willing to be vaccinated is estimated at 3.7 billion (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.1 billion).
conclusionsThe distribution of target groups at country and regional levels highlights the importance of designing an equitable and efficient plan for vaccine prioritisation and allocation. Each country should evaluate different strategies and allocation schemes based on local epidemiology, underlying population health, projections of available vaccine doses, and preference for vaccination strategies that favour direct or indirect benefits.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.